1. Education cuts are unpopular
2. It’s Trump’s economy now
3. The 2028 Democratic primary
4. What we’re tracking
5. What we’re reading |
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1. EDUCATION CUTS ARE UNPOPULAR |
USA Today reported that Trump is set to sign an executive order today to begin the dismantling of the Department of Education. That would be an unpopular move, if public sentiment about last week’s cuts to the department’s staff is any indication. |
Voter support for Trump’s layoffs of more than 1,300 Department of Education employees |
Our March 14-16 survey found nearly half of voters oppose the Education Department’s layoffs of more than 1,300 employees. The survey found a striking gender divide, with a majority of women (56%) in opposition to the move and half of men (50%) supporting it, alongside expected partisan gaps. A majority of independents oppose the layoffs. The imminent move to dismantle the department, which Trump’s order reportedly says will “return education authority to the States,” is a long-sought policy goal on the right that’s been in the party’s platform since the Reagan era. It emerged again during the tea party movement, and was embraced by the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025” that underlines a number of the cuts Trump’s pursuing. It’s also very unpopular. | Shares of voters who say the Department of Education should receive … |
According to our mid-February survey on cuts related to Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative, just 11% of voters would slash the Education Department’s funding altogether, including only 17% of Republicans. The majority of all voters, including half of those in the GOP, would at least maintain it. Trump’s planned shuttering of the department, which requires congressional action, is almost certainly dead on arrival in the Senate, where Democrats retain their filibuster. And whether the Republicans in Congress go along with what Politico called “the fullest extent of his demolition plan” is uncertain given misgivings from some in the president’s own party. While Trump’s order will reportedly tell Education Secretary Linda McMahon to “ensure the department continues to deliver its services, programs, and benefits,” school districts and universities that rely on the funding — including in the form of its massive student loan program — are next to face Trump’s uncertainty. | |
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2. IT’S TRUMP’S ECONOMY NOW |
Shares who say the following is most responsible for the condition of the economy |
We told you last month why Trump would have a hard time blaming his predecessor for any economic pain, and our latest findings show you why we were right about that. In a reversal from last month, more voters than not now say current economic conditions are mostly the result of Trump’s policies instead of President Joe Biden’s. That shift comes as Democrats and independents increasingly see Trump as responsible for the economy. But as Trump hits the two-month mark of his term today, GOP voters have moved the other way. Compared with our February survey, the share of Republicans who said Biden is mostly responsible for current economic conditions increased, while fewer say it’s Trump. This latest survey follows a month of stock market slides related to Trump's tariffs that was capped by his refusal to rule out an American recession. Trump has tried to blame Biden for any bad economic news, especially inflation. That message may be working among the Republican base, but not with the wider electorate. As we showed you Tuesday, Trump’s approval rating has fallen underwater, driven in part by women, lower earners and non-Republicans — the same groups who are turning on his tariff policies. As he gets further into his term, the Biden blame game is unlikely to find more attentive ears. While politicians might be able to get away with blaming the former president in the short term, nobody should question whether Republicans will have to answer for the Trump economy — good and bad — come next November.
In a related read from me on weakening support for Trump’s tariff-focused trade agenda, see how that’s now extending to his protectionist levies meant to shield American metal manufacturers from foreign competitors.
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A MESSAGE FROM MORNING CONSULT |
Tracking Public Opinion of Trump's Washington Morning Consult is tracking what voters across the country think about how President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are governing the United States ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Each week, we’ll update this page with fresh and timely data on all of the major questions facing Washington. See the data here. |
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3. THE 2028 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY |
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said whom they’d support if the 2028 Democratic presidential primary were today |
Former Vice President Kamala Harris remains the front-runner in our very early polling of the potential 2028 Democratic presidential primary field. The 2024 Democratic nominee is backed by 36% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters who could vote in the party’s primary in 2028, a nice starting base of support should she run this time for the Democratic nod. Harris is followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (at 10%), who said last week that he will not seek statewide office in Michigan in 2028. Nobody else on our fairly exhaustive list is garnering double-digit support, and 13% of potential primary voters are understandably undecided at this — we know (!) — very early stage. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ 2024 running mate, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom each have 5% backing. Billionaire Mark Cuban, who played a high-profile surrogate role for the Harris campaign in 2024, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro came next at 4% each, followed by New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 3%. The trio of governors from Illinois, Kentucky and Michigan and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota were the only other listed names to garner more than 1%. Last week, Politico reported that Rahm Emanuel — former White House chief of staff, DCCC chairman and Chicago mayor — is considering a bid. Just 1% of potential Democratic primary voters would support him at this point, and 44% of Democratic voters said they’ve never heard of him. But as Harris largely eschews the public spotlight except a filmed pull aside following a broadway show and an on-stage interview at an AI conference in Las Vegas, this data does underline an opening for ambitious Democrats to try to fill a leadership gap on the campaign. Most Democratic voters want to fight back against Trump, as evidenced by our polling on a potential shutdown last week.
Efforts by Walz and others to tour the country and criticize Trump, such as his visit to Wisconsin in advance of the state’s Supreme Court election next month, provide avenues to satiate the base’s desire for some resistance to Trump, and keep energy high ahead of the midterm elections.
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Hearings On Tuesday, the Senate is set to hold a hearing on Frank Bisignano’s appointment to lead the Social Security Administration amid questions about the Trump administration’s commitment to its funding. On Thursday, the heads of the National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration are scheduled to appear before a Senate Commerce Committee subpanel to examine the preliminary findings of an NTSB report on the deadly crash involving an American Airlines passenger jet and an Army Blackhawk helicopter near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. Ukraine Trump is said to be considering a plan that would have the United States “acquire Ukrainian power plants” as part of an effort “to jump-start talks to halt the Ukraine-Russia war,” according to The Wall Street Journal, which he floated yesterday during a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The move comes after both sides agreed to a partial cease-fire on energy infrastructure. The Trump administration is planning wider talks in Saudi Arabia in the coming days. Government funding fallout Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) told a town hall crowd that his colleagues are “going to have conversations, I'm sure, in the foreseeable future, about all the Democratic leadership” amid criticism of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s handling of legislation to prevent a government shutdown last week, NPR News reported. His ouster seems unlikely, per Senate chronicler Carl Hulse of The New York Times: “History suggests that Democratic senators are not going to start a campaign to remove him when, clumsy as it was, he did what many of them privately wanted.” As a reminder, we showed you Tuesday that even though Democrats face historically poor headlines, the party’s congressional brand hasn’t taken a big hit among the base or broader electorate. D.C. funding fix Trump is pressing House Republicans to get on board with a Senate-passed $1.1 billion fix for the District of Columbia’s budget after lawmakers slashed the capital city’s spending powers. Per Politico, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is most likely “to pursue an expedited floor maneuver in the coming weeks that requires a two-thirds majority vote to secure passage.” |
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