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Good afternoon, 

It may only be October, but holiday shopping has already started. Today, we’re taking a look at whether or not shoppers plan to spend more this year. Plus, we have new inflation data.

Shoppers hope to find savings despite tariffs and inflation

Most shoppers who typically buy holiday gifts (74%) said they plan to spend the same as they usually do, or less this year. Given that prices are generally higher now than they were last year, we asked how, exactly, shoppers plan to accomplish that feat, and most plan to rely on sales and discounts. 

Unfortunately, new tariffs mean brands and retailers can’t necessarily afford deep discounts as they’re trying to avoid raising consumer prices to accommodate tariffs, so consumers may expect better deals than will be on offer this season. 

Others plan to purchase less expensive gifts, or fewer gifts in order to spend the same or less. Gen Zers are resisting the idea of buying fewer gifts, with just 15% saying that’s part of their savings strategy. Those who said they’re spending more are planning to buy more gifts (42%) and say they will give gifts to more people (35%), so their per-gift costs aren’t necessarily increasing as much as the size of their overall shopping list. 

This comes from our 2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook. Download the full report here and explore:

Price Surprise is on the rise, thanks in part to tariffs and rising goods prices

Morning Consult’s Price Surprise Index, excluding housing, has been trending upward since April, tracking a gradual reheating in inflation. This suggests that a growing share of consumers are noticing prices that are higher than expected, rather than simply above or at expectations. The Price Surprise Index measures the net share of consumers reporting higher-than-expected prices on recent purchases, benchmarked to September 2024 (when the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was last near the 2% target). Higher index scores indicate more adults are noticing price increases.

Price surprise has risen across most goods and services. However, similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), goods have been the main driver of the overall increase in price surprise. This is likely due in part to newly enacted tariffs and a more rapid escalation of inflation for goods in recent months. In fact, price surprise for goods (excluding more volatile food and energy categories) reached a positive score in September, the first time since mid 2024, implying that prices are heating up beyond normal expectations. Read more here.

ICYMI

Chinese Consumers Aren’t Gung Ho About the U.S. Trade War: Chinese consumers' appetite for U.S. products could rebound quickly if U.S.-China relations improve.

Indian Consumer Boycotts Are a Growing Threat for U.S. Brands: As America’s brand worsens in India, slightly more consumers there are looking to punish U.S. brands.

Tracking Americans’ Ideology in All 50 States: In no state does a majority of voters identify as liberal, with the highest shares residing in Vermont (42%), Washington (39%) and Oregon (37%).

How Today’s Parenting Choices Are Shaping the Next Generation: A look at how young Gen Zers and Gen Alphas may approach friends, finances and feelings as they come of age.

Tariffs Are Pushing More Shoppers to Consider Secondhand: About a third (34%) of recent secondhand shoppers said they’re shopping resale more often due to the new tariffs.

Voters Increasingly Blame Democrats for the Government Shutdown: According to a new Morning Consult survey, 38% of voters blame Democrats in Congress for the government shutdown, up from 32% when we asked voters whom they would blame late last month.

Tracking Public Opinion on the State of U.S. Affairs: Amid government shutdown, only 39% of Americans see the country on the right track.

Most Americans Still Say Vaccines Are Important, but the Consensus Is Weakening: Since 2022, women have driven a decline in the share of Americans who say vaccines for several diseases are important. 

To Overcome Analysis Paralysis, Get Thee to a Store: Abandoned purchase journeys are too common, particularly in home furnishings, where nearly 40% of consumers have recently decided not to complete an intended purchase.

Americans Are Looking for Energy (Drinks): U.S. adults' favorability toward and consideration of energy drinks has been growing in recent years, suggesting the category is well on its way to the mainstream.

When It Comes to Romance, the Wealthiest Americans Are Happiest: New Morning Consult data reveals that, like so many other things, income divides impact Americans’ romantic satisfaction.

Direct-to-Consumer Brands Have a Gen Z Problem: Gen Zers are less favorable towards a group of major D2C brands, are less likely to consider the brands a good value, and are less likely to be considering purchasing from them.