1. Vaccine skepticism is on the rise
2. The public reception to Trump’s H-1B fee
3. Stagflation watch
4. What we’re tracking
5. What we’re reading |
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1. VACCINE SKEPTICISM IS ON THE RISE |
The American public’s polarizing response to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout set off alarm bells among public health officials worried about the consequences for broader inoculation efforts. Those fears only mounted when vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. became secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services earlier this year, and our latest trend data suggests the alarm may be well-founded: Though most Americans still believe common vaccines are important, that percentage has dropped over the past few years — especially among women. |
Shares of adults who said the following vaccines are important: |
Since 2022, women have become less likely to say vaccines are important for illnesses such as polio (78% to 69%), measles (79% to 72%) and chickenpox (77% to 71%), erasing the gender gap in support for the shots that are mainly distributed to children. Among Republican women, the movement’s been even larger, including double-digit drops in the perceived importance of shots to ward off measles, polio and chickenpox. On the left, the movement among gender was less drastic. Democratic women are 9 percentage points less likely today to see the polio vaccine as important than they were in 2022 (84% to 75%), effectively matching where Democratic men stand on the matter. And Democratic men and women alike are 8 points less likely to see the COVID-19 shots as important, leading to a significant drop in the shares of Democrats who said they plan to get a booster in the coming year. While this data marks the latest proofpoint that the COVID-19 pandemic could in time be remembered as a crossing of the Rubicon for the frontier of public health, the information war over vaccines isn’t over, and the scientific community still has a chance to arrest the declining faith in inoculations.
Read more from me here.
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2. THE PUBLIC RECEPTION TO TRUMP’S H-1B FEE |
Trump’s plan to charge a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas rattled the American business community, raising new concerns about the feasibility of corporations’ reliance on recruitment of skilled foreign workers for a range of roles. Some have even threatened to offshore jobs, Reuters notes. Americans aren’t crazy about it either, though sentiment isn’t especially negative. |
Shares who support or oppose requiring U.S. employers to pay $100,000 per H-1B visa petition in order to recruit highly educated foreign workers |
Our latest survey shows that 42% of voters oppose Trump’s new requirement that U.S. employers pay $100,000 per H-1B visa petition in order to recruit highly educated foreign workers, compared with 36% who support it. Democrats are roughly as likely to oppose Trump’s move as Republicans are to support it (62% to 59%), but 22% of voters — including similar shares on both sides of the aisle — don’t have opinions about the matter. The relatively weak views on this specific issue within the immigration discussion follows our research after the November election that showed voter sentiment on legal migration has not hardened during the Trump era despite the public’s toughened views toward illegal immigration. Most voters don’t think there are too many high-skilled workers here — including most Republicans. More broadly, voters of all political stripes are more likely to think Trump should make stopping illegal immigration a “top priority” than a reduction in legal immigration. As Trump’s focus on legal paths to entry grows to potentially include “F-1 student visas that serve as a critical pipeline to the tech workforce,” per Bloomberg News, he’s not really meeting political demands of the public, or a large chunk of his own party’s voters. For businesses reliant on these high-skilled foreigners, the public’s meager awareness of the matter may allow Trump to fly under the radar with his plans. Their best bet may be to hope that Trump’s and the public’s attention turns back toward his bread-and-butter issue of illegal immigration as the country prepares for the midterm election year. See what voters think about Washington’s approach to immigration and more. |
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A MESSAGE FROM MORNING CONSULT |
Tracking Public Opinion of Trump's Washington Morning Consult is tracking what voters across the country think about how President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are governing the United States ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Each week, we’ll update this page with fresh and timely data on all of the major questions facing Washington. See the data here. |
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Speaking last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there is “no risk-free path” to avoiding the dreaded stagflation, when inflation and unemployment are elevated and growth is stagnated. Our economist Sofia Baig pored over our data for a new memo, writing this week that, “while there are some signs that point to the early stages of stagflation, many economic indicators continue to show robust consumer resilience, keeping the U.S. economy stable for now.” |
Shares of Americans who cited an inability to find a job or an open position as a major reason they are not employed |
She finds that more workers report looking for jobs, and a growing share say their job search is hindered by a lack of available positions. On top of that, inflation has been slowly climbing back up, something consumers appear to be noticing given how “negative views about the economy may be spreading beyond just those actively seeking work.” At the same time, consumer spending remains robust, consumer finances are in decent shape and spending continues to be a bright spot for the economy. While the overall economic picture remains stable, these early warning signs do suggest stagflation risks are increasing.
Read more from Sophia here.
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Government shutdown Trump is poised to speak today with Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought about which ”Democrat Agencies” should be cut as his administration looks to use the shutdown as a rationale for mass layoffs, according to Politico. On Capitol Hill, there doesn’t appear to be an immediate way out given that the Senate isn’t in session today due to Yom Kippur. There are bipartisan negotiations happening among the rank and file level over the expiring Obamacare subsidies Democrats are pressing to expand, but Politico also reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) suggested that those talks won’t lead to anything until the government reopens. Barring major unforeseen developments, we’ll have fresh polling next week the public’s reaction to the shutdown. CISA reauthorization Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is facing pressure from businesses to extend the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act, which gives companies some liability exemptions for sharing information on cyber threats. The measure has bipartisan backing as industry presses to include it in legislation to reopen the government despite Paul’s resistance, per Punchbowl News. Higher ed The Trump administration is floating a plan to a group of universities called the “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” that would cap international students and ban the use of race or gender in hiring in exchange for preferential access to federal funding, according to Bloomberg News. This move regarding colleges comes after Trump suggested Harvard University is finalizing a $500 million settlement with the administration that would see the school fund trade programs. |
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