Good morning. House Republicans are on the cusp of sending the party’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act to President Donald Trump’s desk after several hard-line conservative holdouts caved overnight following hours of procedural drama, Punchbowl News reports. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) held up the process today with a “magic minute” speech highlighting pending cuts to social safety programs such as Medicaid, Politico noted. |
1. Gen Z’s rightward shift
2. What drives voter trust on energy issues
3. Big Tech regulation interest remains low
4. What we’re watching
5. What we’re reading |
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1. GEN Z’S RIGHTWARD SHIFT |
We showed you in 2022 how the U.S. population was becoming less liberal, but not necessarily more conservative. Fast forward to 2025 and that remains the case, except among America’s youngest adult generation.
According to a new Morning Consult report by Ellyn Briggs, Cameron Easley and yours truly leveraging 1.7 million survey responses since 2016, the share of Gen Z adults identifying as liberal has dropped from 42% to 30%, more than twice the 5-percentage-point decline among the larger population.
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Ideological alignment of U.S. adults |
While “liberal” is still the most common ideology among Gen Z adults, a quarter of them (24%) now identify as conservative, up from 18% in 2016. (By comparison, the share of all U.S. adults who identify as conservative has only increased from 32% to 33% since nine years ago.) Though both male and female Gen Zers have shifted right, it’s especially true of the former. Gen Z men have grown far more diverse on the ideological spectrum than their female peers, who remain most likely to identify as liberal. This has come alongside wide differences between Gen Z and the overall electorate — and notably, young women and the broader female population — on gender roles and dynamics, and the “#MeToo” movement. Those divides map fairly neatly onto perceptions of the Republican Party, which is viewed much more negatively by female Gen Zers, 57% of whom say the GOP is on the wrong track, compared with 25% who say it’s headed in the right direction. That isn’t to say that young men love the Republican Party, either. But at 42%, male Gen Z voters are much more likely than their female counterparts to view the GOP’s trajectory in a positive light. These findings obviously hold several key implications for leaders in the public sector, especially with Gen Z set to become the largest group in the electorate in the coming years. But there are also important considerations for businesses looking to court the growing consumer base. Ellyn, Cam and I cover all of that in this chart-heavy download. Click here to give it a look! |
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2. WHAT DRIVES VOTER TRUST ON ENERGY ISSUES |
Since early 2017, we’ve been tracking whom voters trust more — Democrats in Congress or Republicans in Congress — to handle energy issues on a weekly basis. And given voters’ clear emphasis on costs, I’ve always been struck by how often Democrats have led on this issue. In our latest survey, which found 44% of voters trusting Democrats more and 43% opting for Republicans, we asked the voters who trust one side over the other to explain why in their own words. An analysis of their responses shows concern over climate change is helping prop Democrats up, and a perceived push for energy independence boosting Republicans. But more interestingly, it also suggests Democrats have potentially more to gain, especially if the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s provisions aimed at undermining the growing clean-energy industry work as intended. |
Shares of voters who cited the following reasons for trusting Democrats or Republicans in Congress more to handle energy issues: |
While it’s clear that partisanship is the strongest indicator of trust on energy, the respondents citing somewhat softer factors look more open to switching to the Democratic position than the Republican side. Roughly a quarter of voters cited economic or practical reasons for trusting Trump’s party on Capitol Hill, with one respondent arguing, “Republicans plan to make us energy independent again,” and another adding, "They have more common sense policies rooted in reality.” Republicans’ move to effectively kill all clean-energy incentives advanced by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and favor fossil fuels risks weakening the power grid, driving up prices and tarnishing their common-sense image. Many have highlighted the value of incentives in politically red communities — The New York Times wrote that “Republicans may have jeopardized billions in investments in their own districts” — and the wealthy, job-creating tech industry’s interest in cheap power to fuel growing AI products. Still, Republican lawmakers in both chambers shook off those concerns, supporting a reduction in incentives for solar and wind power growth and the promotion of electric cars. We should note that among those in either camp, healthy pluralities cited partisan considerations, suggesting an uphill climb for advocates of either side looking to convert new supporters. But it does appear that the Republicans’ latest actions on Capitol Hill could give Democrats an opening they’ve lacked in recent years — especially on pro-renewable messaging framed in practical, economic terms, underscored by voters’ mixed perspectives on Trump’s plan to end incentive programs in the GOP’s megabill.
See more about Americans’ views on the bill.
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A MESSAGE FROM MORNING CONSULT |
Tracking Public Opinion of Trump's Washington Morning Consult is tracking what voters across the country think about how President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are governing the United States ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Each week, we’ll update this page with fresh and timely data on all of the major questions facing Washington. See the data here. |
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3. BIG TECH REGULATION INTEREST REMAINS LOW |
Amid Big Tech’s concerns about whack-a-mole, state-by-state tech regulations — especially those focused on artificial intelligence — there’s very little interest among voters for Trump’s Washington to take up the regulatory mantle that states have begun to embrace. |
Shares who said the following should be: |
Less than 1 in 4 voters say the Trump administration should make regulating tech companies a “top priority,” including similar shares of Democrats (24%) and Republicans (26%). The issue has consistently ranked at or near the bottom of voters’ priorities, alongside his unpopular tariff agenda. The tech industry took a blow this week when the Senate stripped a provision from Trump’s big legislative package that would have discouraged states from regulating AI for a decade, Business Insider reported. The push for inclusion was in response to concerns about a "patchwork regulatory framework” at the state level, as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told a Senate panel earlier this year. That few voters are prioritizing regulating Big Tech, at least at the federal level, should be good news for the Altmans of the world, who fear restricting AI could harm the rapid development of the technology. But more localized concerns remain a risk for the tech industry, such as those raised by Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) about creators’ and musicians’ intellectual property as regulated by her state’s legislature. The state-level AI regulation moratorium was probably the tech industry’s best shot at stopping that patchwork. And other industries may soon feel pressure to encourage it, given how a new report from my colleague Lindsey Roeschke shows widespread adoption of AI by companies threatens consumer trust.
Dive into her report, “Navigating Consumer Trust in the Age of Data Privacy and AI.”
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Trade Trump’s temporary pause on sweeping tariffs is set to expire on Wednesday, “potentially driving up costs for businesses and raising prices for consumers,” as NBC News put it, given the president’s belief that it’s been harder than expected to make trade deals with a number of countries. The outlet added that Trump “told reporters Tuesday that he wasn’t planning an extension and is informing countries of their new tariff rates,” though his administration has announced a new deal with Vietnam. Israel Trump said Israel had agreed to “conditions to finalize” a 60-day cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas ahead of his planned meeting next week in Washington with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to The New York Times. |
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