This is a preview of our biweekly U.S. politics newsletter, which we deliver every Tuesday and Thursday. Subscribe here to get this analysis and data delivered directly to your inbox every week. |
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Politico wrote Wednesday that Trump announced “plans to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of imported cars and auto parts” that will hit “key trading partners and allies like Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Japan and Germany.” Read more below on how Trump’s trade policy may impact American consumers.
1. Testing Trump’s education moves
2. Trump’s plunging numbers among Black voters
3. How tariffs could affect consumer spending
4. What we’re watching
5. What we’re reading |
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1. TESTING TRUMP’S EDUCATION MOVES
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Voter approval of the Trump administration’s moves to … |
President Donald Trump’s move to shutter the Department of Education is one of his most unpopular actions in office so far. But fewer voters are resistant to his targeting of colleges and universities for their approaches to a range of cultural flash points. Our latest survey shows half of voters disapprove of Trump’s executive order that moves to eliminate the Department of Education. Among more than two dozen actions tested since January, only Trump’s moves to eliminate a Biden administration order designed to lower prescription drug prices and pardon roughly 1,500 participants of the Jan. 6 Capitol attacks drew a larger percentage of disapproval among voters. But even as the public rejects Trump’s plans to eliminate the Education Department, Americans are not especially perturbed about his administration’s approach to higher education via funding and investigative levers, such as its pressure on Penn over transgender athletes or Columbia over pro-Palestinian protests. Trump’s efforts to eliminate the Department of Education are a long shot, and Republicans in Congress lack much trust or support from the American people on the matter to credibly advance this effort. But amid news that Columbia has agreed to overhaul protest policies and educational programs to appease the administration and others have cut ties to DEI-related programs, these initial reactions to the administration’s moves and our data show that schools reliant on federal funding will need to pick their battles with the Trump administration carefully. If not, they may have to seek to dramatically increase state and private funding to make up for the losses Trump has proven he’s willing to inflict.
Read more from me here.
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2. TRUMP’S PLUNGING NUMBERS AMONG BLACK VOTERS |
Trump’s initial net approval rating vs. now |
Trump performed better than ever among nonwhite voters in November, but those groups — especially Black voters — are starting to shift away.
Since our first post-inauguration survey in January, Trump’s net approval rating has fallen 27 percentage points among Black voters, who are now 47 points more likely to disapprove than approve of how he’s doing his job, 72% to 24%.
Trump’s numbers have similarly dropped among millennials, who are now equally likely to give him positive and negative marks after favoring his approach by 22 points in January.
All of this has contributed to, as we mentioned Tuesday, Trump’s worst approval rating so far in the nine weeks of surveys we’ve conducted since he took office earlier this year, leaving him at a similar position to where he was exactly eight years ago during his first term.
Of course, we’ll have to see whether this sticks. But if recent presidencies, including Trump’s own, are any indication, these numbers are more likely to get worse than better for the rest of his presidency. And that would bode poorly for the durability of the broader GOP’s new, more racially diverse coalition. While we’re only over two months into Trump’s second term, what’s clear is that despite a piecemeal Democratic messaging operation against the country’s Republican governing trifecta, the political environment is shifting away from the GOP during what should be a fairly serene time for the party. The politics are only likely to get harder for them here as they work to extend tax cuts and consider cuts to popular social welfare — especially if the opposition party can land on a more unified approach to pushback. ICYMI: I talked about some of this yesterday with Sirius XM’s Julie Mason. Listen here or read more here. |
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A MESSAGE FROM CVS HEALTH |
Lowering the cost of care for millions of Americans CVS Health works every day to put medicine within reach of people who need it. Our patients have an average out-of-pocket cost of less than $8 for a 30-day supply of medication, and last year nearly 70% of members spent less than $100 out-of-pocket on prescriptions. Learn more about how we’re ensuring access to affordable medications for millions of Americans. |
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3. HOW TARIFFS COULD AFFECT CONSUMER SPENDING |
The categories consumers expect tariff-related inflation to cause price spikes, by household income |
As Trump looks to impose a new round of tariffs next week, Americans look ready to cut their spending in response as they continue to predict the protectionist policies will be inflationary. According to our economist Deni Koenhemsi, “a higher share of lower and middle income households expect to scale back spending when countered with tariff-driven inflation,” though “higher-income households’ decision will be more crucial for the topline spending number as they have had a more significant share of the spending pie in recent years.” Beyond the potential economic problem, this is also reflected in our political surveys. Lower-income Americans have shifted the most against Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, for example, and are generally less supportive of his levies on China, Canada and Mexico than their richer peers. Given Trump’s approach, whether these tariffs fully go into effect remains an open question. But if Americans do begin to feel the pain of retaliation from other countries and curtail their spending alongside any downturn in corporate investment in growth, this could cause executives’ fears of a recession to come true. While Americans don’t yet expect such a downturn, Deni writes, “like many other economists, we expect slower GDP growth in the near term.” Read much more from her here. |
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A MESSAGE FROM CVS HEALTH |
CVS Health is improving the lives of hundreds of millions of people every day, simplifying their health care journey and reducing the cost of prescription drugs. Our patients have an average out-of-pocket cost of less than $8 for a 30-day supply of medication, and last year nearly 70% of members spent less than $100 out-of-pocket on prescriptions. Learn more about how we’re making medicine more affordable for all Americans |
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| Reconciliation update Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Republicans privately that the chamber may vote on a joint budget resolution as soon as next week “after a particularly productive meeting between Thune, Speaker Mike Johnson, top tax writers and key Trump administration officials,” Punchbowl News reports. Thune needs Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough’s backing first as he seeks to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent without big offsets by using a baseline that has never been used in reconciliation before. Thune has also endorsed a House effort to address the debt limit in the budget reconciliation process ahead of an August or September deadline projected by the Congressional Budget Office. Tariffs European officials expect Trump to set a “flat, double-digit tariff on all goods as part of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs” he’s expected to impose on April 2, per Politico, following a meeting between Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and European trade chief Maroš Šefčovič. According to the outlet, “EU ambassadors to the U.S. were also told there is little they can do to avoid the tariffs going into force,” and they’re expected to “come on top of tariffs levied on specific industries like steel and aluminum and the 25 percent tariff Trump has ordered on any country that purchases oil and gas from Venezuela.” Signal scandal fallout Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman (R-Miss.) is “seeking an expedited inspector general investigation” into the leak of a sensitive Signal group chat between Trump’s top national security advisers about strikes in Yemen, according to CBS News. Wicker and the top Democrat on the committee are said to be working on a joint letter to request “a classified briefing, an expedited investigation from the inspector general, and details and clarity on Signal records, security, usage and the text exchange itself.” All eyes on Wisconsin Wisconsin will hold elections on Tuesday, where the control of the state’s Supreme Court will be on the line in a contest that has drawn the attention of Democrats eyeing the state’s congressional map and billionaire Elon Musk, whose company Tesla has a case moving through the state’s judicial system.
In Florida, Musk is also spending money to boost Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis in the 1st District and state Sen. Randy Fine in the 6th District as they face rivals in open elections for two U.S. House seats.
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