Two in 3 Americans would blame the Trump administration for tariff-related price increases amid news of his proposed levies on goods from China, Canada and Mexico, according to a new analysis of fresh data from our global political analysts Jason McMann and Sonnet Frisbie, and the Morning Consult Economic Intelligence team. In a flurry of action yesterday, President Donald Trump agreed to pause tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days after they pledged to boost border enforcement, though his 10% tariffs on China are still set to go into effect today. |
Voters are still more likely to approve than disapprove of Trump’s job performance (49% to 47%), but since last week, his approval rating fell 3 percentage points alongside an identical increase in the share who disapprove. At the same time, his favorability rating has fallen underwater and the kind of information voters took away from him in the news slumped to its lowest point in our tracking since he was re-elected. Read more from our updated tracker of public opinion of Trump's Washington. |
Roughly half of Democratic voters say their party is headed in the right direction, down from 65% who said the same in January 2024 ahead of last year’s election. This underlines the tough vibes facing Minnesotan Ken Martin, who over the weekend was elected as the next chairman of the Democratic National Committee during the party’s winter meeting in Washington. (For reference, 84% of Republican voters see their party trending the right way, up from 60% a year ago.) |
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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK |
Trump-Xi call Trump is poised to speak “as soon as this week” with Chinese President Xi Jinping following his announcement of 10% tariffs on goods from China and Xi’s announcement of retaliatory measures, according to Reuters, which called the expected call “a major diplomatic exchange as the world's two largest economies seek a deal that could avert a broader trade war.” The two haven’t spoken since Trump’s second term began, but did speak before his inauguration. Netanyahu visit Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with Trump today at the White House to “discuss the cease-fire in Gaza, a separate truce in Lebanon and tensions in the wider Middle East,” The Wall Street Journal reports. According to the paper’s sources, Trump is seeking congressional approval for a $1 billion arms sale to Israel following a Biden administration blockage. Hearings Given the tariff news this week, all eyes will be on the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday at 10 a.m. for its hearing to consider the nomination of Jamieson Greer to be U.S. Trade Representative. Today, the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on fentanyl as Trump targets the illicit substance and the Senate Intelligence Committee is set to meet behind closed doors to consider Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination to serve as the director of national intelligence. Gabbard got a big boost in her bid when moderate Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she would support her nomination. Reconciliation One thing not happening this week: The House Budget Committee is not planning to mark up its budget resolution, “delaying the first step in the reconciliation process they plan to use to enact Trump’s agenda,” Punchbowl News wrote yesterday after chatter last week that the process would begin. GOP hardliners remain at odds with Republican leaders over spending cuts needed for the package that could touch taxes, immigration and energy policy. |
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A MESSAGE FROM MORNING CONSULT |
Global Policy Outlook Series: Business & Regulatory Climate, H2 2024 Morning Consult’s Global Policy Outlook series provides monthly analysis of global sentiment on key issues at the intersection of politics and economics across 19 of the world’s largest markets, along with our six-month forecast of where policymaking is headed. This edition assesses global public sentiment surrounding the business and regulatory climate — including labor protections, antitrust, and diverging views on politics and the economy. Download the report. | |
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For the first time in our tracking since November, more voters than not disapprove of Trump’s selection of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. |
Shares of voters who approve and disapprove of Trump’s selection of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to serve as secretary of Health and Human Services |
According to our latest survey, 43% of voters disapprove of Kennedy’s nomination, marking a high-point after weeks of relative stasis since he was trapped by the then-incoming president, while 42% approve, a tracking low. The shift appeared driven by independent voters, 46% of whom now disapprove of his nomination, though there were upticks in recent weeks in negative views among Democrats and Republicans, too. To be sure, the bulk of voters in the president’s party (71%) approve of his nomination. Amid Democratic-led efforts to topple Kennedy’s bid, only 3 in 10 voters said they’d heard “a lot” about his confirmation hearing — and fewer said the same of news that his cousin, former U.S. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy, released a letter and video accusing him of being a “predator." But the uptick in negative views about Kenendy’s ascent ahead of an expected Senate Finance Committee vote today stands out nonetheless because of the lack of voter opposition to Trump’s other most controversial nominees: Tulsi Gabbard to lead the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and Kash Patel to be FBI director. Despite mild declines in support, more voters approve than disapprove of Trump’s selection of Gabbard (37% to 34%) and Patel (39% to 33%). Given the political incentives facing most Republican senators, the figure that may be most important is the nominees’ standing among GOP voters. And by that metric, our surveys continue to suggest a heavy lift for most potential dissenters should they want to avoid re-election primaries next year. |
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According to our tracking of major actions Trump has taken in the first couple weeks of his presidency, his attempt to reverse Biden-era expulsions of U.S. troops who did not get a COVID-19 vaccine from the military is his most popular executive order yet. |
Shares of voters who approve or disapprove of the following Trump executive actions: | Nearly 3 in 5 voters (59%) said they approve of Trump’s order to re-hire U.S. military service members who were discharged for refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic, making it slightly more popular than his declaration of a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, which had 57% backing last week. Notably, voters are far more likely to support Trump’s troop reinstatement than they are an order that bans transgender Americans from serving in the U.S. military, which is supported by 41% of voters and opposed by 45%. Pluralities of voters support Trump’s order promoting the expansion of access to private school vouchers or temporarily suspending the admissions program for refugees. But voters are more divided over his efforts to eliminate the asylum process, instruct the attorney general to pursue the death penalty whenever possible or withhold federal funding from K-12 schools that recognize transgender identities or teach students about concepts like structural racism, white privilege and unconscious bias. Beyond those actions, voters were also more likely to disapprove than approve of the Trump administration’s attempted freeze on all federal grant and loan programs in order to ensure that they comply with his executive orders (46% to 41%). News of this action had relatively high salience: 41% said they had heard “a lot” about it, roughly matching the share who heard about his comments suggesting DEI was to blame for the deadly crash involving a passenger jet and an Army helicopter near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. Trump has gotten by for a couple weeks on his post-victory honeymoon. But that’s already starting to shift, and his red-meat actions may only take him so far as the electorate is still looking for action on the cost of living concerns they voiced during the 2024 campaign. |
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