Happy Friday. While you were likely asleep, the Senate voted 52-48 to adopt a budget resolution as a “first step towards writing a filibuster-proof reconciliation package,” Roll Call wrote this morning. More on what’s ahead next week below. |
1. DOGE cuts aren’t backed by voters
2. The Biden-Trump economy
3. Many voters are fine to end the ‘de minimis’ import exemption
4. What we’re tracking next week 5. What we’re reading |
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1. DOGE CUTS AREN’T BACKED BY VOTERS |
As President Donald Trump and White House adviser Elon Musk scour the federal government for savings via the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, they face a problem with public opinion. As voters sour on the billionaire's involvement in Trump’s government, our latest survey finds there is little appetite among the electorate — including among Republicans — to slash or eliminate a range of government agencies that DOGE has targeted as GOP lawmakers such as Rep. Rich McCormick of Georgia and Rep. Troy Balderson of Ohio pushed back on Musk’s agenda despite cheers for him yesterday at CPAC. |
Shares who say these U.S. government agencies should receive … |
Our data shows comfortable majorities of voters would preserve or expand funding for the Department of Defense, the Department of Education, the National Institutes of Health, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Half would do the same for funding of the United States Agency for International Development. Support is lower among Republicans, but more of them than not back at least maintaining current funding for every government entity tested except for USAID, which the DOGE project has already sought to fold into the State Department. At the same time, only 3 in 10 voters say that reducing the size and scope of the federal government should be a top priority for the administration, though almost half (46%) say it is one for Trump’s government. That suggests a mismatch in priorities that could result in mounting voter backlash, especially if unpopular cuts at these agencies have real-life consequences not just for fired federal employees, but also the voters who rely on government services, many of whom voted for Republicans in 2024. Read more from me here. | |
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2. THE BIDEN-TRUMP ECONOMY |
Following a worse-than-expected inflation report and subdued consumer confidence, Trump laid the blame for the state of the economy squarely on his predecessor who only just left office. While many voters agree that the Biden administration’s policies are mostly responsible for today’s economy, Trump is getting nearly as much credit (or blame), and more find him responsible than when he inherited Barack Obama’s economy in his first term. |
Shares who say economic conditions are mostly the result of the policies of … |
More voters than not Joe Biden is mostly responsible for the condition of the economy (44%), compared with 39% who said the same of Trump. However, the share who hold Trump responsible today is slightly higher than the share who did so back in March 2017 (39%). This difference is driven by larger shares of Democrats and independent voters who view today’s economy as primarily Trump’s, while Republicans are more likely to blame Biden this time around than Obama eight years ago. While Trump still has a positive approval rating on the economy, the clock appears to be ticking. Since he took office, the share who approve of his handling of the economy has declined from 53% to 48%, while Republicans in Congress’ trust advantage on the matter has shrunk to a sliver. This comes as our tracking of public opinion on Trump’s Washington shows what voters say they’re hearing about the economy has worsened since Trump took office in January. In other words, the window for Trump to credibly blame Biden for any concerning economic news appears to be closing quickly. Dive into the trend data here. | | |
A MESSAGE FROM MORNING CONSULT |
Tracking Public Opinion of Trump's Washington Morning Consult is tracking what voters across the country think about how President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are governing the United States ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Each week, we’ll update this page with fresh and timely data on all of the major questions facing Washington. See the data here. |
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3. VOTERS ARE FINE TO END THE ‘DE MINIMIS’ EXEMPTION |
The Trump administration was forced to delay implementation of an executive order that sought to end the so-called "de minimis" exemption amid a pileup of products at American receivers. But its attempt to end the policy that allows for the duty-free imports of goods under $800 to the United States is relatively popular. According to our weekly survey, nearly half of voters would end the “de minimis” loophole, making the action more popular than his proposed 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum — though a number of voters are less certain about the former than they are the latter. |
Shares who approve or disapprove of the following recent Trump executive actions: |
Per Reuters, “more than 90% of all packages coming into the U.S. now enter via de minimis,” the bulk of which are from China via “direct-to-consumer retailers such as Temu and Shein,” the latter of which is experiencing a growth driven by younger, less-affluent shoppers, my colleague Claire Tassin wrote this week. With Trump’s policy expected to go back into effect once federal agencies get their acts together, the end of de minimis could have major effects: One estimate by researchers at Yale found that “eliminating the exception could cost the average family up to $136 a year, with low-income and minority consumers seeing the biggest impacts on their spending.” These efforts to stick it to other countries have been popular on their face, but it’s not certain that an electorate that’s largely begging for lower consumer costs would give Trump the credit he’s hoping for. |
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4. WHAT WE’RE TRACKING NEXT WEEK |
House returns The House Rules Committee has posted a Monday meeting to consider its budget resolution as it works to play catch-up with the Senate, which started its own work this week. The pending clash comes as the House considers a plan to advance Trump’s domestic policy agenda that could put safety-net programs on the chopping block despite voters’ support for their funding, as we reported out this week. European visitors Trump is set to host French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Washington. Their trip comes amid fears in Europe about the president’s critiques of Ukraine and his administration’s apparent deference to Russia in peace talks. |
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